Will the San Francisco Vision Make China Hesitant to Take Action Against Taiwan？
By Chieh Chung
China Times and The Storm Media, December 28, 2023
As Taiwan’s 2024 election day draws near, the security situation of the Taiwan Strait after the election has become another focus of international attention. One issue of concern is that if Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate William Lai is elected president and the DPP was to control the majority of the legislature, will the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conduct high-intensity military activities and exercises in Taiwan’s vicinity between January 13 election and May 20 inauguration?
Surprisingly, as indicated by several policy researchers in interviews, some in Washington and Taiwan believe Beijing won’t necessarily take high-intensity military drills against Taiwan before May 20 even if Mr. Lai and DPP won, and would probably resort to economic means to pressure Taiwan. The reason behind this thinking is based on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s statement in his meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden in San Francisco on November 15, in which he denied there was a plan to attack Taiwan between 2027 to 2035 and agreed to resume high-level military-to-military talks with the United States, in an attempt to reduce tensions in the U.S.-China relations. If mainland China conducts high-intensity military drills less than half a year after the Biden-Xi meeting, it will inevitably raise tensions with the United States and derail the San Francisco vision.
However, it is a mistake to believe Beijing would hesitate to take high-intensity military drills against Taiwan simply because of the San Francisco vision. It is a gross misunderstanding of Beijing’s position in the Biden-Xi meeting and a serious ignorance of Beijing’s insistence on “bottom-line thinking” and “extreme thinking”.
Beijing’s Position in the Biden-Xi meeting
Mr. Xi’s open denial of a plan to attack Taiwan between 2027 and 2035 is just a different way to say that China has no timetable to solve the Taiwan question. More importantly, Beijing also attempts to describe itself as a status quo supporter rather than a breaker by publicly announcing to Washington and the world that it does not intend to change the status quo of the Taiwan Strait. What Mr. Xi didn’t say is that Taiwan or the United States will be the status quo breaker if Taiwan moves toward Taiwan independence or Washington crosses the red lines in its military cooperation with Taiwan.
In the narrative of “the five pillars for the U.S.-China relations,” Beijing also reiterated, “China has interests that must be safeguarded, principles that must be upheld, and red lines that must not be crossed” as the premises of “having a stable, healthy and sustainable relationship with the United States.” Beijing also emphasized the importance of appreciating each other's principles and red lines. In other words, Beijing’s position in the Biden-Xi meeting was to tell Washington clearly that if Washington wants to reduce tensions in their bilateral relations and manage risks in their competition, Beijing needs Washington’s sufficient respect for Beijing’s position on the Taiwan question, an issue of core interest to China. In response to Beijing’s request, President Biden reiterated that “the United States does not support Taiwan independence.”
In short, Beijing’s statement in the Biden-Xi meeting is to elaborate that Beijing has the right to take necessary action if its interests, principles, or red lines are compromised. It has never listed the mitigation of U.S.-China relations as a top priority or placed it over the management and control of the Taiwan Strait situation. It is hence wishful thinking to believe Beijing would be hesitant to conduct high-intensity military deterrence against Taiwan because of the San Francisco vision.
Bottom-Line Thinking and Extreme Thinking
To study Beijing’s possible actions to a DPP win in the elections, one cannot neglect the emphasis on Beijing’s bottom-line thinking and extreme thinking on issues of core interest.
Right after the Biden-Xi meeting, the People's Liberation Army Daily published an article on December 6 authored by “Xi Jinping’s thoughts on Military Enhancement Research Center,” emphasizing that (China) must insist on bottom-line thinking and extreme thinking… (China) must realize the opportunities and challenges facing our national security, look forward to studying the national security risks and threat of war, actively make ready for change, think ahead, and move ahead of what we should do in order to maximize our efforts to prevent the crises from happening, make the best use of military power and measures to create a favorable strategic situation.
In the same article, the People's Liberation Army Daily further clearly pointed out that if the following “four whenevers” happen, (China) must be brave to “show sword to fight”: Whenever our national sovereignty, security and development interests are threatened or challenged; Whenever our core interests and principles are threatened or challenged; Whenever our people’s fundamental interests are threatened or challenged; and Whenever the realization of our two-century struggle goals and rejuvenation of the Chinese nation are threatened or challenged, China must rise to the occasion and fight with determination, China must not vacillate or flinch.
In other words, when faced with problems involving core interest, Beijing’s position is to “use bottom-line thinking and extreme thinking” to “predict beforehand and take preventive measures according to the pattern and trend of event development, and to judge from various potential risks and incoming challenges”, in order to “prevent the situation from worsening”. It further emphasizes the use of military power to create a favorable strategic situation.
Therefore, if Mr. Lai won or the DPP controlled both the executive and legislative branches of government as a result of the elections, in order to prevent the situation from worsening and mainland China using force, Beijing is very likely to take a series of actions against Taiwan including high-intensity military deterrence and economic coercion before May 20. The purpose of these actions is to deter Taiwan’s new administration from crossing Beijing’s red lines; to influence the content of the inaugural speech of the new president, forcing him to clarify his position on issues of Beijing’s concern; more importantly, to force Washington to make clear its position on issues of Beijing’s concern, such as disciplining Taiwan government’s behavior or setting limits on future political and military interactions with Taipei.
(The author is a researcher at the Association of Strategic Foresight and an associate researcher at the National Policy Research Foundation.)
From:
https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20231228004121-262110?chdtv